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V.P.I. |
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Value per Pick Index |
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The Value per Pick Index (V.P.I.) was developed in
1998 to measure how effectively each individual draft pick |
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was used.
Each selection is evaluated based on pick number, talent available,
positional depth, three year |
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statistical averages, 2005 projections, and the
trend analysis of the previous five N.J.R.B.L. drafts. The V.P.I. |
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does
not factor in the quantity of picks a team has or the team needs. It is assumed that a team would move |
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down
in the draft to select appropriate value while meeting team needs. A perfect score on the V.P.I. Is 1.0. |
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1 |
La-z-Boyz |
0.890 |
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VPI
Comments: Top to bottom one of the best drafts in NJRBL history. After every pick you find yourself saying
"Wow", "Nice", etc.. |
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4. |
C.Lee |
0.934 |
Best stud
potential arm in the draft. Rock
solid pick. |
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9. |
J.Rollins |
0.826 |
VPI loves trading down to get a guy you like. Still a little early. |
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27. |
T.Hoffman |
0.883 |
Solid
closer value, no longer a keeper but how many are? |
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28. |
R.Hernandez |
0.915 |
Best
Catcher in draft. Don't underestimate move from SD to Balt. |
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51. |
C.Jackson |
0.874 |
Can't get crazy on potential, but same chances as guys taken much earlier |
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52. |
J.Dye |
0.909 |
Has
some known holes, but exceptional value for one of top available Ofs |
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2 |
Monarchs |
0.867 |
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VPI
Comments: Came off plan to add closers when they went early; VPI loves real
time adjustments to stick with value |
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23. |
J.Lackey |
0.927 |
Managed to grab the last of the four top starters with only
first round pick |
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47. |
M.Piazza |
0.873 |
Gamble that move to west coast will result in one more decent
season |
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48. |
D.Davis |
0.826 |
Developing into very predictable draft day starter |
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71. |
R.Belliard |
0.865 |
Round three figured to provide nice 2B value; good pick |
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72. |
M.Ellis |
0.845 |
Below average pop, but will provide saver numbers in other
categories |
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3 |
Freaks |
0.861 |
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VPI
Comments: Take some chances. Year
after year of steady drafts that don't improve savers. The conservative banker approach. |
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7. |
G.Jenkins |
0.864 |
Steady across the board production; usually a bubble saver |
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8. |
J.Patterson |
0.931 |
Numbers compare to most of the starters that were saved |
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31. |
A.Benitez |
0.834 |
Older and injury risk, but capable of elite closer numbers |
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32. |
M.Barrett |
0.805 |
Little
early; Steady and unspectacular which seems to be the Freaks approach |
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55. |
E.Bedard |
0.817 |
If his projections pan out will be a steal at this spot in draft |
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56. |
R.Furcal |
0.913 |
Just
as good as middles that went two rounds earlier |
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4 |
Nyuk Nyuk Nyuk |
0.850 |
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VPI
Comments: Like the aggressive move to grab Drew. Gets consitent proven value.
Struggles valuing younger talent. |
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2. |
JD Drew |
0.894 |
Top
rated available hitter. Needs to stay
healthy. |
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13. |
B.Myers |
0.901 |
One of four first round starters provides excellent value. |
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37. |
O.Perez |
0.839 |
Maybe a bit early, but got to love that K ratio |
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61. |
D.Lowe |
0.873 |
Closer run pushed this solid veteran starter down a few rungs |
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62. |
C.Biggio |
0.813 |
Hard to argue with pop middle that doubles as a potenital bday present
for bro |
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63. |
L.Gonzalez |
0.778 |
About
done and likely former juicer still might be able to take another lap |
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5 |
RH Factor |
0.838 |
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VPI
Comments: Dealt many early picks in 2005 fifth place run. Changes pitching strategy every year. Might need to alter approach. |
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15. |
BJ Ryan |
0.864 |
Best closer in draft; big contract and new team make a little
more questionable |
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39. |
J.Garland |
0.812 |
Bit early for a lousy K ratio and limited success; good team
and young |
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6 |
Bombers |
0.800 |
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VPI
Comments: Closer strategy impacted other teams. Does staff have starters to make it work? Huge risk for potential title hopes. |
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17. |
B.Wagner |
0.862 |
Safest closer option in the draft; should benefit from
pitchers park |
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18. |
D.Turnbow |
0.745 |
Lot of negative scouting reports in offseason. Better get 35 saves at this spot. |
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41. |
E.Guardado |
0.871 |
Underrated
reliable closer. Won't be a keeper,
but very solid. |
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42. |
R.Dempster |
0.723 |
Scary WHIP makes one wonder.
Converted saves in second half of 2005. |
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50. |
T.Gordon |
0.762 |
Old
and in a new pressure role. Should
have fired this bullet at Furcal. |
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65. |
C.Guillen |
0.804 |
Figured to go near end of first day.
Injury prone but productive. |
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66. |
M.Loretta |
0.832 |
Steady
hitter that could benefit by move to better hitters park. |
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7 |
Swillers |
0.777 |
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VPI
Comments: Had to get a corner after save mistake. Most of draft were reaches, although did like the All in Family
theme |
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3. |
A.Beltre |
0.894 |
Best
corner in draft; should thank Owner that did not save him…oops |
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10. |
R.Cano |
0.623 |
Awfully early to be using Yankees year book for draft magazine |
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33. |
J.Bonderman |
0.709 |
Fill in bottom of staff talent for 2006; still young enough to
improve |
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34. |
J.Blanton |
0.793 |
Lacks stuff to ever be considered a top shelf starter |
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58. |
K.Johjima |
0.764 |
Cool
name, WBC flavor pick. His production
won't separate him from pack. |
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70. |
N.Johnson |
0.879 |
Still young but just can't stay healthy. Good spot at end of round 3. |
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8 |
Beagles |
0.767 |
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VPI
Comments: Lot of position fillers with limited upside. Likes to collect Rangers and Rockies. Needs to improve savers. |
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11. |
I.Kinsler |
0.785 |
Not a great value pick, but young touted Rangers can be
enticing |
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12. |
C.Barmes |
0.762 |
Even altitude won't help this guy from putting up very
ordinary SS numbers |
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35. |
AJ Pierzynski |
0.765 |
Usually on Beagles roster, usually adequate at best. Early for adequate. |
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36. |
M.Gonzalez |
0.822 |
The K ratio make this guy interesting. Closers had added value |
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59. |
R.Barajas |
0.834 |
Slot this AJ clone as a Beagles third rounder for the next 5 years |
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60. |
A.Harang |
0.632 |
Third
round pick for a player that figured to be claimed? Can pitch BP |
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9 |
PC 1st Cousins |
0.748 |
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VPI
Comments: Hit or Miss. Added some
nice young chips that are potential savers.
Forced some picks at deeper positions. |
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5. |
J.Morneau |
0.892 |
Best
firstbase prospect available. Young
with legit 40 pop potential. |
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6. |
T.Iguchi |
0.653 |
Did
Ichiro need a road roomie? Can't go
with steady at this spot in the draft |
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29. |
J.Willingham |
0.619 |
Not
real touted, not real young, not real good, not a top 30 pick |
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30. |
E.Encarnacion |
0.853 |
Stock rising all spring. Young
with good pop in a nice park. |
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53. |
C.Young |
0.861 |
Solid pick if he gets expected boost from change of scenery |
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54. |
P.Polanco |
0.702 |
Many
better middles available. A position
filler rather than difference maker |
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67. |
B.McCann |
0.694 |
Youth and down the road potential only difference to catchers
taken rounds later |
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68. |
D.Cabrera |
0.713 |
Has a knack with young arms.
Baltimore can be rough spot to develop. |
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10 |
Scrubs |
0.735 |
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VPI
Comments: Very uninspiring. Seemed to
be filling spots over value. Bad
drafts will catch up to once dominant franchise. |
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19. |
C.Crisp |
0.706 |
Must have liked the name when on roster before. Early for this type. |
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20. |
B.Jenks |
0.753 |
Shaky job status is biggest concern. Ozzie is not patient. |
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43. |
B.Molina |
0.643 |
Forced a catcher selection with no third round picks. Could have waited. |
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44. |
J.Valverde |
0.836 |
Bombers adding closers really hurt this franchise. Did not adjust. |
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11 |
Notorious Cuz |
0.722 |
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VPI
Comments: Be bold. Package early
picks for one proven younger guy.
Many of players taken would be there later. |
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1. |
C.Crawford |
0.821 |
Very
hyped. TBSB monster. May never translate to NJRBL stud. |
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14. |
D.Johnson |
0.635 |
Kotchman
(24) and Jackson (51) are very similar and taken later |
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16. |
F.Liriano |
0.726 |
All young guys are the next somebody. Better arms available here. |
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24. |
C.Kotchman |
0.712 |
Thrilled to pick up unexpected first round bonus money! |
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25. |
P.Wilson |
0.868 |
Not far removed from monster numbers.
Could be in ideal spot. |
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26. |
B.Wood |
0.602 |
Too early to be taking someone you think has to be a manual add |
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38. |
C.Ray |
0.843 |
Young and touted with the job.
Closers flew off the board. |
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40. |
J.Mathis |
0.578 |
Clubhouse boys thrilled to have him back since he helps with the wash |
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49. |
J.Barfield |
0.712 |
Grabbed
early before Swills went on 'All in Family' run |
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12 |
Thunderstix |
0.701 |
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VPI
Comments: Very bad first day. Things
returned to 2005 form on the second day when he stopped forcing things. |
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21. |
J.Gibbons |
0.714 |
Most of the outfielders in his group went on day 2 |
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22. |
D.Haren |
0.704 |
Did he think this was HarDen in the med induced state? |
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45. |
M.Jacobs |
0.615 |
Bad
line up, very unproven, lost catcher eligibility…pinch hitter by the break |
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46. |
C.Orvella |
0.701 |
Tampa Bay closers are not usually hot commodities on draft day |
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69. |
B.Wickman |
0.773 |
Unlikely to repeat 2005 performance, but still decent shot to
get saves |
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VPI Analysis of Talent
Pool |
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Tougher
to analyze talent pool with rule changes.
Most difficult aspect was assigning closer value since quality and |
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quantity
were improved. I though there were
four starters that had sure round one talent. Next tier was about ten deep |
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and
figured to go in next couple rounds.
Thought Ramon Hernandez was best catcher option and after that there
was a |
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good
sized group that were tough to tell apart.
Firstbase and thirdbase were very weak. After Morneau and Beltre the |
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drop
was severe. Some young corners that
would move up based on potential.
Shortstop talent level was weak |
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with
only a couple of guys (Furcal and Rollins) that figured to get early
looks. Secondbase was probably the
deepest |
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position,
and there was not much difference at the top. This seemed to make waiting a few rounds and taking what was |
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left
a smart value move. Best outfielders
were Drew, Crawford, and Jenkins.
Remaining outfielders figured to start really |
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moving
after the first few rounds. Overall,
if you were not getting one of the top available offensive players at a
position it |
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made
the most sense to grab pitching.
Closers going quicker than expected seemed to confuse some. |
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